Was Hari Seldon pulling our leg?

If we look at the stories themselves, we see them explained by the characters as consistent with psychohistory. But their explanations may not be correct. Consider the first Crisis: Hardin chases Anacreon off Terminus by appealing to Anacreon's three neighbors. This is, we're told, the only possible solution-- which it may well be. There is no discussion, however, of what might have gone wrong.