TFC is the Time-for-Change Dummy Variable

Reestimating the time-for-change model based on the results of all presidential elections since World War II, we obtain the following estimates:

V = 50.3 + .81*GDP + .113*NETAPP – 4.7*TFC,

where V is the predicted share of the major party vote for the incumbent party, GDP is the growth rate of real gross domestic product during the first two quarters of the year, NETAPP is the incumbent president’s net approval rating in the final Gallup Poll in June, and TFC is the time-for-change dummy variable. TFC takes on the value of 0 if the president’s party has controlled the White House for one term and 1 if the president’s party has controlled the White House for two or more terms.